On 19 December 2019 at 2145 GMT New Zealand GDP for Q 3
- GDP y/y expected 2.3%, prior 2.1%
- GDP (sa) q/q expected 0.5%, prior 0.5%
ASB are higher than consensus:
- 0.7% qoq
- y/y 2.5%
- Our usual suite of economic indicators has provided varying signals on the strength of the economy in Q3. The early, yet typically-reliable sentiment-based measures implied very little (if any) economic growth over the quarter. However, recent StatsNZ data, which are used as inputs into StatsNZ's GDP estimate, have been surprisingly robust.
Westpac:
- expect a 0.5% q/q
- y/y 2.3%
- Conditions were mixed over the quarter, with strength in retailing and business services, while forestry, travel and personal services were soft. A stronger than expected manufacturing survey has made it likely that growth will exceed the Reserve Bank's estimate of 0.3%.
- The pace of growth has clearly slowed over the course of this year, as the economy has faced a range of headwinds. However, recent more positive news has reinforced our view that the September quarter will mark the low point
