This is the first drop for this index since December of last year
Down 1% m/m
- prior +1.5%
Up 2.2% y/y
- prior +5.4%
NZD index down 1.1% m/m to be up 7.4% y/y.
Of the 17 commodities in the index
- five rose
- three were unchanged
- nine declined
ANZ summary comments:
- While the shine has come off New Zealand's goods terms of trade recently (down 1.9% in Q1 from their all-time high), they remain elevated by historical standards.
- Rising import prices (reflecting higher oil prices and broadening global inflation pressures) are expected to limit any significant upside to the terms of trade from here, but recent export price performance should keep it travelling at a high level.
- On a three-month average basis, the ANZ World Commodity Price Index was up 3.5% q/q in June, with the NZD Index up 6.5%. This bodes well for national incomes. While there may have been a few small positives for New Zealand so far on the back of protectionist trade rhetoric and policy, a more pronounced slowdown in global trade (and therefore growth) risks shifting this dynamic the other way.
(bolding mine)
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ANZ with their summary of price trends for New Zealand's 17 main commodity exports
