New Zealand Q4 CPI: +0.1% q/q (vs. expected -0.1%) & prior was +0.9%
–
For the y/y, comes in at 1.6%
- expected +1.5%
- prior was +1.4%
- annual increase in the CPI is the highest since March 2012 quarter
- ‘Tradeables’ inflation -0.5% q/q. this is not as much of a fall as was expected. Says Westpac: “Most of the surprise relative to our forecast was in tradeables inflation, particularly airfares, household items and recreational goods. This points to muted pass through from the strong exchange rate”
- tradables inflation fell the most since 2007
- On the other hand, Non-Tradables came in at +0.5%, accelerated the most since the Q3 of 2011
- Q4 CPI is often seasonally weak, so today’s higher than expected is somewhat a surprise
–
I posted this in the wake of the release: ANZ – says RBNZ will hike rates on January 30
–
More now:
From ANZ:
“With inflation gravitating towards the mid-point of the policy band a January hike will be a very very close call. We think the OCR needs to move sooner as opposed to later and are now actively calling a hike in January”
–
Thanks to ANZ, Westpac and MNI
