New Zealand business survey due today - preview

ANZ releases its business outlook survey for July at 0100 GMT on Thursday 29 July 2021

The two headline figures are:

• Business Confidence, prior -0.6%

• Activity Outlook, prior 31.6%

Behind the headlines indications from the survey eyes will be on indications on price pressures and therefore inflation. Demand in the NZ economy is strong, while supply bottlenecks, capacity constraints/labour market constraints have already seen rising inflation.

• NZ CPI Q2 2021 1.3% q/q (vs. expected 0.8%) and 3.3% y/y (vs. expected 2.8%)

There are widely held expectations of Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate rises beginning as soon as next month. Some of the forecasts:

• Westpac forecast 3 rate hikes from the RBNZ by the end of this year
• ANZ on the RBNZ cash rate hike cycle ahead, on track for 1.75% by the end of 2022