CNH at strong optimism on the US and china reaching a trade deal says MS
More generally from MS - foreign macro investors and equity investors have differing sentiment towards China
Macro community are more cautious or bearish on China given the worsening data
- This indicates that positioning in CNH is light, explaining its recent outperformance
- In addition …we believe exporters, who have accumulated about US$68bn of USD deposits since June last year (according to our estimates), could convert USD into CNY, driving USDCNY lower.
Foreign equity investors seems to be more bullish on Chinese equities
- inflows should support China's balance of payments
