NEW YORK (MNI) – Forecasters Thursday saw an average +0.5% result
for Friday’s headline April Consumer Price Index from the Labor
Department in the ongoing three-month MNI Forecast Competition.
Forecast contest participants delivered their CPI forecasts by the
10:30 ET Thursday deadline.
The next statistic to be estimated will be Tuesday’s industrial
production report. The deadline for those forecasts is 11:15 ET Monday.
Each month until June 30, the three forecasters with the highest
scores will be awarded Visa gift cards worth up to $500. The three-month
Best Overall Forecaster gets $1,500.
May 5 MNI announced the April winners:
— Omair Sharif, RBS
— Fernando Melro dos Santos, Private
— Dr. Stephen Kirchner, UTS Business School
Thursday the +0.5% increase in April U.S. retail sales
reported by the Commerce Department differed from the average
of entries in the ongoing three-month MNI Forecast Competition, +0.6%,
by 0.1 point, and the increase for the April Producer Price
Index reported by the Labor Department was right on, at +0.8%, the
0.75% average contest estimate.
Wednesday, the $48.2 billion March U.S. trade deficit reported by
the Commerce Department differed from the average of entries, $45.5
billion, by $2.7 billion.
Monday May 2 the 60.4 index level for April’s U.S. manufacturing
ISM report headline number differed from the average of entries, 60.6,
by just 0.2 point.
Wednesday April 27 the 2.5% increase for March U.S. Durable Goods
Orders differed from the average of entries in the contest, +1.1%, by
1.4 percentage point.
Monday April 25, the 300,000 level for the March U.S. New Home
Sales report differed from the average of entries in the ongoing
three-month MNI forecast Competition, 260,000, by 40,000.
Tuesday April 19, the 549,000 level for March U.S. Housing Starts
at an annual rate exceeded the average of entries in the ongoing
three-month MNI Forecast Competition by 64,000.
Friday April 15, the Consumer Price Index report result differed by
0.3 point from the 0.8% increase that was the average of entries.
Thursday April 14, the average of the forecasts for the report on
the U.S. Producer Price Index of 1.2% turned out to be off 0.5 point.
Wednesday April 13, the average of the forecasts for the report on
U.S. retail sales of +0.8% turned out to also be off by 0.4 point.
Tuesday April 12, the average of the forecasts for the U.S.
February Monthly Trade Balance of $45.7 billion turned out to be off the
actual result, $45.8 billion, by only $100 million.
Participants can register for the online contest without cost at
http://mni.lumenogic.com/mni/login/login.html where there is more
information and a guided tour. The results will continue to be published
by Market News International.
The contest runs until June 30. The contest will decide who wins
the title of Best Overall Forecaster, the recipient of the $1,500 prize.
When the outcome of each economic indicator is published — the
initial release without revisions — each individual forecast will be
scored for how soon it was registered and for its accuracy. The total
score for every participant will be summed up on a monthly basis and
ranked in descending order.
Each month until June 30, the three forecasters with the highest
scores will be awarded Visa gift cards worth up to $500. The MNI
Forecast Competition outcome for each indicator, determined by averaging
all participant forecasts, will be published on the MNI Main Wire and by
MNI Bullet Points at least 12 hours prior to the official release time.
At the end of June, MNI will award the competition’s Best Overall
Forecaster award with a Visa gift card of $1,500.
The competition covers the following 10 U.S. economic reports:
International Trade Balance
Retail Sales
PPI
CPI
Industrial Production
Housing Starts
New Homes Sales
Durable Goods Orders
ISM Manufacturing Index
Nonfarm Payrolls
** Market News International New York Newsroom: 212-669-6430 **
[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$]
