Probably negative.
I think we have to view averting the fiscal cliff as the flip side of the debt ceiling debate of summer 2011. The dollar rallied on risk aversion at that time and will likely fall (some) on a deal to avert the cliff.
I doubt we have a big move as the market has been pricing in progress even though there has been little tangible progress until this weekend.
I view a cliff deal as a risk-on event, but one that is largely discounted. USD/JPY is probably the cleanest way to play, but it has already moved a lot.
If playing a fiscal cliff deal, keep your expectations modest and your stops tight.
