Since breaking through 100 and 101 we’ve not even had one attempt anywhere near those levels. The lowest we’ve got since cracking 102 has been the 101.80’s.
The longer we stay up here the more money will come in below to underpin the rally as confidence in it’s ability to carry on will grow.
The market is happy to sit here nibbling at the highs and the lows within 102 while we await the next batch of US data.
The fact that the market is comfortable up here does not suggest we will not break to the downside but that it will be hard going. In fact if we do fall the moves could be accelerated if we break through the expectant money below as the short term longs stage a quick rush to the exits.
Overall the rally is still looking like it’s got plenty of legs. 103 is still the big target and the longer we don’t break it the harder it will get, just like 100. If we do blow then we’re off to the races again.
I’m still going with a short play at 102.90 but may trim my stop reverse down from 103.30 as time below 103 progresses.
