Preliminary and priors can be found here
Comments from the IHS / Markit report:
- "There were indications that the tentative recovery in the Japanese service sector lost momentum as the country battled with a resurgence in COVID-19 cases. Although the rate of decline in activity was broadly unchanged in November, a sharper fall in new business signified that demand remains fragile amid short-term uncertainty surrounding the length of the pandemic.
- "Uncertainty also led to a renewed fall in employment levels, albeit one that was fractional. Yet, firms maintained strong optimism that business conditions would improve over the coming 12 months.
- "The loss of momentum extended across the Japanese private sector as activity remained firmly in contraction territory in November. The pace of decline was broadly unchanged from October, with the larger service sector recording a sharper fall than manufacturing.
- "Despite a broad recovery in GDP in the third quarter of 2020, uncertainty prevented a stronger uptick as investment contracted for a second consecutive quarter. With our current projections anticipating a 5.4% decline in GDP during 2020, growth is projected for 2021. Japanese private sector firms remain confident of a wider recovery over the next year amid hopes that the pandemic will recede and private sector activity will be supported by a broad-based boost in demand stemming from stable business conditions and the Tokyo Olympics. As a result, we currently expect the economy to grow 2.2% in 2021, as the economy begins to emerge from the global downturn."
The balance is optimism in this analysis, which may be reasonable given vaccine developments and the better year ahead for Japan expected in 2021 (Olympics will be a good boost to the service sector).
