Details from the January 2017 UK claimant count and labour market data report 15 February 2017
Prior -10.1k
- Dec ILO unemployment rate 4.8% vs 4.8% exp. Prior 4.8%
- Average weekly earnings 2.6% vs 2.8% exp 3m y/y. Prior 2.8%
- Avg earnings ex-bonus 2.6% vs 2.7% exp 3m y/y. Prior 2.7%
3m unemployment change 37k vs 22k exp. Prior -9k
The claimant count looks extreme and I'm hearing there's been a change in calculations at the ONS. Yep, there's been some messing around in the claimant count due to the inclusion of the new universal credit system. The ONS say that will make the numbers more volatile.
The wages numbers softened a touch. Dec on its own saw wages in at 1.9% y/y due to lower bonuses. Surprisingly, it was the private sector that saw the biggest drop, falling to 2.8% from 3.2% prior. The public sector saw pay at 1.5% vs 1.3% in Nov.
The pound is down around 30 pips on the wages data but it's not a stinker of a report in any way, shape, or form. Employment continues to gain at a steady rate, we just need to see wages continuing to join in.
UK average weekly earnings ex-bonus 3m y/y
