Its the US NFP in the spotlight, but at the same time is Canada's monthly labour market report (March 2019)
- Due at 1230GMT
What to watch, via RBC:
- We see employment falling by 10K in March after a 55.9K increase in February and 290K of gains over the last six months. Although other employment reports point to strong recent job growth (e.g., the SEPH survey at +203K in the six months through January), the gains remain at odds with GDP growth slowing (sub-1%) around year-end.
- Despite the fall in employment in March, we see no change in the unemployment rate at 5.8%, as the labour force numbers should adjust alongside.
- Average hourly earnings for permanent workers improved to 2.2% y/y in February and we are biased to another bump higher in March.
- Side note: The 0.7% m/m decline in hours worked in February seems entirely due to an abnormally large loss of hours owing to weather (-1.0%), so we expect a strong bounceback in March
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looking for US jobs report previews instead?
