CPI and retail sales due at the bottom of the hour
Which is the bigger release?
I'll go with retail sales. The consumer is always a better gauge of what's happening in the economy at the moment. The problem is that seasonal adjustments and little skews can send off mixed messages.
At the times when the central bank is in play the CPI report is much more important but the BOC is sidelined at the moment. The core reading was at 2.1% y/y in the prior reading and expected at 2.0% in today's number so even a miss won't take it far from where Poloz wants it.
As for retail sales, the ex autos number is forecast to decline 0.4% but the range of estimates spans from +0.6% to -0.8%. The numbers are for April, a month that was strong in the US.
Lately, the Canadian dollar has struggled to rally on good news so I'd sell any bounce.
