…but it must happen enough to keep the dream alive.
To what dream to I refer? The dream of your favorite asset bubble suddenly imploding, justifying your stubborn bucking of a well-defined trend.
As I’ve said time and time again, identifying bubbles is easy, timing their demise extremely difficult (and usually unprofitable).Just ask Alan Greenspan, who told us the stock market was toppy at the end of 1996, only to watch one of the most explosive rallies in history unfold over the next three years, greatly influenced by his own easy-money policies…
I guess human nature programs us to conclude that we are smarter than the market, despite ample evidence to the contrary.
My advice? Hate Aussie? Scorn Swissie? Wait for the market to turn…better to leave some money on the table and get the direction right than to needlessly spit into the wind…