The banks seem to think so
Not only are they largely brushing off her winning, they're brushing off the possible threats of France leaving the euro if she does.
JPM - There is a strong likelihood that Le Pen reaches the second round of the presidential election but she would most likely lose by a decent margin against any opponent
Unicredit - All polls have her cruise into the second round, and once you have a one against one, you really never know what's going to happen. All in all, France leaving the euro zone remains a very low risk, there is still a majority in favor of the euro zone" in France
Barclays - The chances of Le Pen winning the second round of the presidential election are very, very small. In any case, her party is extremely unlikely to come remotely close to an absolute majority in the lower house in the June general elections. She would have to accept cohabitation and thus would not be able to govern strictly following her manifesto
Credit Agricole - A victory for Le Pen shouldn't automatically translate into a French exit from the euro zone. An exit would be a long and complex process as it would require a constitutional amendment
The only banks who at least addresses the risk is Commerzbank and HSBC;
Commerzbank - A victory of Le Pen in the presidential election would probably lead France to leave the EMU. And without the political and economic heavyweight France, the rest of EMU is unlikely to survive. The news of a Le Pen victory would cause massive capital flight not only out of France but also out of the peripheral countries such as Italy. Capital controls and banking holidays would follow, which could be the start of the end of EMU
HSBC - If Le Pen won the presidency a referendum on EU membership, even before legislative elections, would be legally feasible but virtually impossible in practice. After legislative elections, Le Pen would not need parliament to approve an EU referendum
Overall the banks are putting a low risk on Le Pen winning all the way through. They may very well be right but I think that a lot of the market is underestimating the risk.
