This via Morgan Stanley:
- German CPI inflation likely comes in at 1.7%Y in August
- broadly unchanged relative to July
- Our forecast would be consistent with a 1.6%Y HICP inflation.
- Core CPI inflation will likely come in at 1.6%Y,unchanged relative to the previous month
- In July, another increase in the recreation component of the CPI supported services inflation. This came after a previous rise due to the one-off shift in Pfingsten holidays from May to June this year. Before the Pan-German data are released, several regional states will release their data in the course of the morning. As usual, we would look to the larger West German states for guidance on risks to our and consensus forecasts for German and euro area inflation figures.
And, from HSBC:
- In August, the holiday-related effects should fade (price volatility in package tours), but fuel and heating oil prices should add to monthly inflation.
- We expect the national CPI to increase by 0.2ppt, which should push the annual inflation rate to 1.9% (HICP: 0.1% m-om, 1.7% y-o-y).
