Here's an estimate
Trade was a boost to US GDP but major exports of goods about to be hit with tariffs -- namely soybeans -- likely skewed the data and will reverse in the months ahead.
Brad Setser writes about trade imbalances at the Council on Foreign Relations and he's certainly the most-informed person I trade that I know of.
"I'm pretty confident that net exports will start to pull down the measured pace of growth from here on," he writes.
So the race to get ahead of tariffs may have added 0.5 percentage points to the 4.1% GDP reading in Q2.
"Expect exports to stall again (lose the soybean kicker, slowing global trade, strong dollar) while the stimulus from tax cuts and the budget deal supports ongoing growth in US demand for a few more quarters - which implies a bit of deceleration from here," he says.
So stronger growth for a few more quarters but not as strong as this one.
