Fed, BOE and BOJ. US/China meetings. US employment
The week will be a busy one highlighted by interest rate decisions, key meetings with the US and China, and the always key US employment report.
Secretary Mnunchin and USTR Lighthizer will travel to China on Monday and conduct meetings on Tuesday and Wednesday in Shanghai. A major breakthrough is not expected, however, there may be small concessions from both sides with China making a possible conmmitment to purchase more agricultural products, and the U.S. easing its ban on U.S. companies selling to Huawei at least partially.
Below are the list of the other key releases and events:
Monday:
- Retail sales. 7:50 PM ET/2350 GMT. Est -0.3% MoM. YoY 0.2% vs 1.3% last.
Tuesday:
- BOJ interest rate decision: The BOJ is expected to keep rates unchanged at -0.10%. The central bank may look to rollover forward guidance to the summer of 2020 from the spring of 2020.
- China Manufacturing PMI. 9 PM ET/0100 GMT. Est 49.6 vs 49.4 last month
- Australia CPI QoQ. 9:30 PM ET/0130 GMT. Est 0.5% QoQ and 1.5% YoY
Wednesday:
- US ADP employment report: 8:15 AM ET/1215 GMT. Est. 150K vs 105K last.
- Canada GDP for May. 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT. Est 0.1%. YoY 1.3%
- FOMC interest rate decision: The Fed is expected to cut rates by 0.25% to 2.00%-2.25% range. Focus will be on the forward guidance from the Fed. Is there more cuts ahead or is this an insurance cut?
Thursday:
- PMI data for France, Germany, Italy, EU.
- BOE interest rate decision: 7:00 AM ET/1100 GMT. The BOE is expected to keep interest rates unchanged but could lower it's outlook on the back of slower growth, uncertaintly from Brexit, and a slower growth forecast.
- ISM manufacturing index for July: 10 AM ET/1400 GMT. Est 52.0 vs 51.7 last month
Friday:
- US employment report. 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT. Est 169 vs 224k last month. Avg hourly earnings est 0.2%. Earnings YoY est 3.1% vs 3.1 last
- US trade balance. 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT. Est. $54.6B vs $55.5B last month
