The FT have a great article out detailing what's at stake in a Brexit
The FT (and highlighted by reader CreditPhil) have noted analysis from the FCA and what the loss of the passporting rights to the EU may amount to in numbers. There's three key points in the story.
5500 passport from the UK to the EU
8000 from the EU to the UK
In an extreme case, 20% of investment banking and capital markets revenues could be hit
As with the UK import situation, there's just as much (if not more) at stake for European firms trading with Britain as there is the other way. For all the talk from Europe about making things difficult for the UK to get a deal, the heads of European states will be doing just as much damage to their own companies as they will do to the UK's.
While 20% of business (est at £9bn per year) is possibly at risk from the loss of the passport, that's not a life threatening number and we could probably take 25-50% off that as a more realistic estimate.
The real pain will be decided by government leaders and it's up to them to think about whether they want to cut their noses to spite their faces, just to teach the UK a lesson. At the end of the day, their decisions will be judged by their own populations, which will include the firms they may hurt by their actions. Given the shakiness of governments around Europe right now, that might be a risk they'll decide not to take.
The full story is here but gated. It's well worth a read if you have a subscription.
