Things are still finely balanced and we can't rule out another sizeable move but what opportunities can the NFP bring
I'm watching how things are developing and there's always an opportunity just around the corner. Here's 5 trades that I'm watching
- USDJPY - 119.00 down to 118.80. Levels I highlighted earlier. If they hold then longs look good. A long can be kept fairly tight from 119.00 while adding at 118.85/90 and stop on a break of 118.75. If the pockets are deep enough a stop under 118.50
- EURUSD - I've had a small short here at 1.1300 and I'll put my stop above 1.1330 or maybe 1.1350. Europe hasn't changed on this number and the ranges are good to play
- USDCHF - One to keep an eye on perhaps for getting a boost from any SNB intervention. The drop here may some extra legs left in it and I like the look of the 200 and 100 dma's at 0.9537/47 for a technical long. There's further support at 0.9489 so that could be used as a place for stops
- GBPCHF - has a whiff of overdone and if the quid has shaken off the recent bearishness then a swift return higher is possible. The 200 dma sits at 1.4617 and again, provides a secondary buy and stop point
- USDCAD - It's been given another kick lower today but nothing has changed for Canada and if the US catches a cold, they'll get the sniffles too which will keep the BOC on the dovish side of the street. The 55 dma at 1.3166 looks tempting down to 1.3080/60 and a stop on a break of 1.30. Quite a wide trade compared to the others so I'd probably run a smaller position at each level
It will pay to be wary of getting too deep into something this late in the day. The data is bad enough that we are very unlikely to see these moves reverse and any attempts are likely to be knocked back. Factory orders (and Durable goods revisions) in about 10 mins gives us the last big data of the day and may also give us the last moves. If we can't break any more big levels after that then that would be the signal to get in
