The March 2020 Australian labour market survey was conducted in the earlier part of March prior to the lock down restrictions really hitting.
- Data release due at 0130GMT
I posted expectations earlier:
- Employment Change: K expected -30K, prior +26.7K
- Unemployment Rate: % expected 5.4%, prior 5.1%
- Full Time Employment Change: K prior was +6.7K
- Part Time Employment Change: K prior was +20K
- Participation Rate: % expected 65.9%, prior was 66.0%
As part of previews:
- two major data points coming up from Australia this week
- Australian jobs report due today - preview (spoiler - it won't be too bad ... yet)
Note that while the median consensus is for a -30K result, some of the bank estimates are much, much higher:
- NAB is at -90k
- JP Morgan Securities is at -80K
- RBC is at -75K
- TD -60k
- Barclays -50.4k
RBC preview:
- survey period for March labour force was the first two weeks of the month prior to the step-up in social distancing measures
- Nevertheless, we will likely see some impact as businesses began to stand down or shed labour amid a reduction in turnover and expectations of tougher restrictions
- decline in the participation rate is likely as well and may temper the move in the UR to ~5.6%
- There will be a number of other key metrics that will likely show a weakening in the broader labour market, including a decline in hours worked, employment/population and higher underemployment rate.
