Here we go, an outline of 5 potential Brexit scenarios ahead. feel free to add more in the comments. the more the merrier.
"Technical" extension
- UK PM Johnson sent his letter the EU asking for an extension, as he was required by law to do once oct 19 passed without an approved deal
- EU is now considering it
- EU Council President Tusk recommends the 'flextension' (more here: Brexit - EU Tusk's recommendation for a Jan 31 extension is a "flextension ")
Longer extension/delay
- Again, Tusk has recommended out to January 31, 2020 if needed.Given much parliamentary work needs to be done it may take even longer!
'No-deal' Brexit
- i.e. leave on October 31 if the EU does not agree to an extension …. difficult to see this happening
- Still, all 27 EU states must agree to an extension and France is getting antsy (France says it rules out a further Brexit delay beyond this next one)
Bring on an election
- UK PM Johnson has polls in his favour if an election is called
- Needs the support of the main opposition Labour Party to get an early election
- Labour has been adamant they would not support an election unless the threat of a "no deal" Brexit is removed - an extension would seem to go a long way to removing that threat, boosting the chance of an election.
A second referendum
- Down there with 'no deal' IMO.
- There is some support for this, of course, but enough in the parliament?
Always time for a cuppa!
