New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) business survey for Q1 2018
This preview of what to watch for via ASB:
- Economists put a lot of weight on business confidence as an indicator for GDP growth. In NZ, the main surveys we monitor are the monthly ANZ Business Outlook survey and NZIER's Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO). Of late, however, there has been a divergence between the two, with the ANZ survey falling sharply in the aftermath of the election.
- So far the QSBO has held up better. This has been reassuring as the QSBO is the better GDP indicator at the moment. But the risk remains that the QSBO survey could fall further (suggesting downside risks to our GDP forecasts), in line with the ANZ survey. As a result, it will be very interesting to see what the Q1 QSBO survey brings this week.
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And, via Westpac:
- Business confidence fell sharply in the December quarter as firms became more nervous about the outlook for the broader economy in the wake of the change of Government. Firms' outlook for their own activity also fell albeit not as sharply.
- Since then, monthly measures of business sentiment have improved off their lows. However, confidence continues to linger well below pre-election levels. We will be looking to see if this trend rings true for the QSBO as well.
- Of interest will be how the survey's key inflation gauges are tracking. We'll also take note of how capacity pressures in the construction sector are evolving and any further tightening in labour market indicators
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Earlier posts from Greg on the NZD:
