Has the relentless bid in bonds left investors locked into future losses?

Bond bonanza in Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate

According to Bloomberg, around $54.8 tln of the $60.7 tln of securities making up the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index have negative real yields. This means investors have been happy to park their money, even if it means a negative real return. That tells you how strong the demand for bonds have been as 90% of the total bonds on offer are showing negative real yields.

Coronavirus to turn the corner in April?

Bond bonanza in Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate

The coronavirus is bad, and the worst is undoubtedly still to come. However,

The Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. traded higher on the session today with news of a further reduction in China's additional coronavirus cases. President Xi also visited the epicentre of the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak in a symbolic move showing that China are controlling the virus outbreak. Is the coronavirus worst over for Hubei? Yes, it seems to be. Now, if memory serves me right, the Hubei outbreak really got the markets attention around Jan 23. I remember it was around then because I was shorting the N225 futures as market sentiment shifted. Around 6 weeks ago. So, back of the envelops stuff, it looks like a 6 week curve from onset to peak reduction. In 6 weeks time the worst of the coronavirus will be behind us. However, lots of investors will most likely find themselves locked into neagtive yielding bonds. The US has around 88% of it's market in neagtove real yields and the eurozone, Japan and New Zealand have more than 90%.

Bond bubble as negative real yields abound?

Bond real yields

My suggestion is that this could be the top of the bubble for bond prices. Others have been warning of it for months. Bonds have been bid and bid for good reason. However, in around 6 weeks time this horrible virus will be behind us. Then bond prices may well look ridiculous and investors pull the plug. This is especially the case when emerging bond markets do offer positive yields e.g. Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, South Korea, Mexico and Russia. A more genteel global economy could see risk assets being ditched. This looks like the view from the top for bonds. If not here, not far from it. What do you think? Unfettered optimism? Will bond prices march ever onwards or can you see a potential top from here?

Best in 2026

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