Odds rise to 15% from 10%
Economists at Goldman Sachs now see a 15% chance of the UK crashing out of the EU with no deal, up from 10% before May's resignation announcement.
They had expected a deal in Q2 but now pencil in an orderly exit late this year or in early 2020 "but our conviction is low."
Hard to have any conviction but GBP has mounted a bit of a comeback and is up 38 pips to 1.2695. Keep a close eye on the fix.
