Goldman Sachs says it sees a 40% chance of US raising China tariffs on Friday (but ... )

Yes Goldman Sachs have said they see a 40% chance of a tariff hike this week from trump.

BUT ... the but is that the note in which in which GS said this was written before the most recent headlines that China is considering not sending its trade delegation to Washington this week. If China retailiates like this GS may bump that probability up a little.

The pertinent comment:

• BOTTOM LINE: President Trump's announcement that the tariff rate on $200bn of imports from China will rise from 10% to 25% lowers the odds of a successful conclusion to US-China trade talks and raises the odds of further tariff escalation. However, we think it is more likely that the increase will be narrowly avoided and believe the odds of tariffs increasing on Friday are 40%.

Yeah, BUT ... Goldman Sachs wrote the note after Trump tweeted:

• Pres. Trump: China tariffs will go up to 25% on $200B of goods on Friday

More:

• ICYMI - US President Trump threatens higher tariffs on Chinese goods

• Trump was told by aides that significant hurdles remain to reaching trade deal with China

• Monday morning early spit ball - how will China react to Trump's tariff hike tweets?

• Trump to announce new Iran sanctions this week (report via Axios)

• US equity futures open lower in Sunday trade - here's why ICYMI

The note was written BEFORE this:

• China is now considering cancelling this week's trade talks with the US