Goldman Sachs says they are net neutral for now on the US dollar
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We do not see a case for sustained Dollar appreciation:
- the global economy will benefit from vaccination tailwinds over coming quarters,
- the US economy should slow as the fiscal impulse turns negative,
- and falling inflation should allow the Fed to remain on hold for a lengthy period (our economists expect an unchanged funds rate until Q3 2023)
But for markets to embrace this view we will likely need to see
- a topping in the latest Covid outbreak
- and lower US inflation
GS note on US inflation that the latest CPI release is today in the US, Wednesday 11 August 2021.
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US July CPI is due at 0830 New York time, which is 1230 GMT.
