Here is GS with a preview of the election in Japan due October 22
To start with I'm going to pull out a bit from near the end of their remarks, 'cause I think its the most important part ...
- The outcome is hard to predict, however, given around one-third of voters are likely to be undecided.
Well, yes. even the elections we have seen in the past year or that have been real easy to predict:
- Brexit 'remain' will win
- Hillary will win
- May will increase her majority in the early election
... No, wait ...
I think you get the picture, right? Elections always have an element of uncertainty and that element has been ramped much higher.
Anyway on with the GS preview & prediction:
The election will be contested under a tripolar configuration, comprising
- (1) the ruling coalition LDP/Komeito,
- (2) groups of parties centered by Ms. Koike, governor of Tokyo,
- and (3) groups of left-wing parties.
Opinion polls indicate that the ruling parties will win a simple majority at least.
And, to repeat:
- The outcome is hard to predict, however, given around one-third of voters are likely to be undecided.
