From GS economists on the US economy
Risks to US growth from global threats have become higher than before. But a major global downturn (circa 4% slowdown) would be necessary to send the US into a downturn
- "the last few years have provided a reminder that the impact of changes in foreign growth on U.S. financial conditions -- especially U.S. equity prices -- can be quite variable and unpredictable"
GS economists base-case probability of a recession over the next year is 14%
- rises to 20% if global growth slowed 1% more than expected
- 46% if a 3% deceleration
- 64% if 4%
- "Under present circumstances a further slowdown in global growth could meaningfully boost U.S. recession odds, but it would have to be fairly large"
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Long story short on this (IMO) is if US - China trade talks agree to something the global economy will bumble along OK for a while yet.
