Elliot Wave technical analysis chart for the Australian dollar, GS views into 2019
GS comments:
The market is in a 5th wave of a sequence that started at the '11 highs
- In short, this could be interpreted as the Vth wave of a sequence that started at the '11 highs. Going back historically, wave IV began in Jan. '16, and formed a clean ABC counter-trend advance, targeting 0.8168 (the high reached 0.8125). The sell-off since Jan. '18 has looked fairly impulsive, increasing confidence in the theory that this is in fact a Vth wave.
- At very minimum a wave 5 will typically retrace the full extent of its move since the bottom of wave 4 which in this case would mean re-testing the lows from Jan. '16 at 0.6827. It could also eventually extend as far down as 0.6432 (if equal to the length of wave 1).
GS' view
- Initially focused on the Jan. '16 low at 0.6827. Scope to eventually reach 0.6432
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I am not a user of EW, but for those who are, comments welcome on Goldie's analysis1
