GS is looking at what they refer to as Australia's effective unemployment rate
- adjusted for hours worked and labour-force participation
Says this real rate of unemployment is likely to hit 19% by the middle of this year.
Many workers will be nominally employed under the government's wage subsidy program
- "but working very few hours"
- others will leave the labour force
Will boost part-time work and voluntary labour force exits
- and significantly undermine the usefulness of standard measures of underemployment and underutilization
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe is aware of the developments, said last week his main labour-market focus will be on total hours worked, which he expects to fall by 20% over the first half of the year.
GS expect an associated slowing for wages growth.
