The IFO and BDI are commenting on Trump
IFO
Nothing has yet been decided on protectionism from Trump
German firms are waiting for actions from Trump, not just words
There's been no Trump effect seen in the IFO sentiment index
Export expectations are higher, even for the auto industry
Reaffirms German GDP forecast of 1.5% for 2017
BDI
Forecasts German GDP at 1.5% for 2017
Sees USD surging 5-10% against major world currencies
New protectionism from Trump administration harbours big dangers
Biggest impetus for Germany and world economies to come from proposed corp and income tax cuts and higher defence spending
What's very clear is that the world is waiting on Trump and the US to suddenly explode into some sort of massive growth engine. The Trump expectation trade is still very much in play. As I've been saying for a while, the US data hasn't mattered, even if it should point to the Fed raising rates again. It's all about the Donald.
