As Chancellor outlines his budget proposals, the GBPUSD is staring at what is a key support level at the 1.5811-18 area. The area corresponds with a low from March 16th (at 1 in the chart above), a low from March 19th (at 2), the 100 hour MA (at 3), and the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the March 15th low. The combination slowed the decline (the low reached 1.58209) and the market bounced higher (see chart below). The price is now consolidating, looking for the next move.
If the price can stay below the 1.5843 area, it would suggest the sellers remain in control and a move through the key support will be eyed (with stops on a break looked for). If the price breaks above the trendline and that 1.5843 level in the chart below (yellow area), I think the market will look more closely at the low reached and conclude that it was a pretty good place to hold the decline.
We will see.