The 61.8% of the move down from the 2012 high comes in at 1.59052. The price has pushed back above this level today (it has been above on two days in the last few weeks but has not been able to close above). A close above this level today, should lead to further upside momentum. Longer term the main targets are the 1.5989 and then 1.6060 areas (see chart above).
Looking at the surge higher – it all started when the price moved back above the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart and the trend line resistance at 1.5857 – the last leg higher in the trend like move based at 1.58746. The current 38.2-50% retracement comes in at 1.5903-1.59108. The double high from yesterday comes in at 1.5907. The 61.8% of the move down from 2012 comes in at 1.5905. Stay above this area and the bulls are taking firm control. Move below and a move toward the 1.5878-91 would be the next support (1.5878 is the midpoint of the days range). A move below the 1.5878 would not be welcomed by the buyers.
Remember the GBPUSD is in the midst of what would be one of the most narrow trading ranges in it’s recent history. The current range is 1,069 pips from the low to the high. The most narrow range for a year going back to 1980 has been 1.082 pips in 1998. This suggests that unless this is a record year, there is room for an extension at some point between now and the end of the year. Be aware. Keep it in your mind.
