Coming up from Canada at 1230GMT - January retail sales
RBC with a preview:
- We are forecasting a 0.9% m/m increase in retail sales in January, following a 0.8% m/m decline in December. The latter was flattered by a 2.6% m/m increase in auto sales as the ex-autos measure fell 1.8% and core sales (excluding autos and gasoline) fell 2.0%.
- The declines look in part related to the moving forward of holiday shopping to October and November (e.g. electronics/appliances down 9.1% m/m in Dec after a 12.7% increase in Nov).
- We are on the conservative side in seeing just a +0.4% reversal for core sales in January, with a small bump in auto sales and a ~3% rise in gasoline prices expected to contribute to the headline gain. Volumes should rise 0.6% m/m, largely reversing the 0.8% decline in December.
And, Bk of Montreal:
- Retail sales are expected to jump 1% in January, rebounding from December's steep drop-that would be a similar pattern to what we've seen over the past two years.
- Auto sales likely rose modestly in the month, lifting the headline a touch.
- Difficulty to properly seasonally adjust and the increasing prevalence of gift cards should support January activity.
- Gasoline prices were sharply higher in the month on a seasonally-adjusted basis, so that will provide support to the headline as well. We look for sales ex. autos to climb 1.1%, while sales ex. autos & gas are expected to gain about 0.8%. Recent history suggests there's upside risk to our call, but the sharp pullback in housing activity to start 2018 could dampen shoppers' enthusiasm. Lastly, while goods prices were higher in the month, volumes are still expected to see a solid gain after falling heavily in December.
