Forex news for traders on April 6, 2017
- US major indices end the day with modest gains
- What is expected with the employment report(s) tomorrow?
- Secretary of State Tillerson: China can be part of new strategy to curb N Korea. Talks tough on Syria.
- WTI crude oil futures settle at $51.70
- NY Fed March Dealer Survey released
- US military options in Syria: Pentagon official
- Feds Kashkari responds to JPMorgans Dimon
- ECB Constancio: Wide consensus in governing council on ECB policy
- The only way is up for European stocks
- ECB wants tougher regulation of top foreign bank branches within the EU
- SocGen on what matters as the Fed looks to unwind QE
- Buyers in the GBP into the fixing
- UK PM May: UK looking forward to formally beginning negotiations
- What is your most inspiring trading mantra?
- FOMC Yellen to speak on Monday at Univ. of Michigan
- Fed's Williams says policy must incorporate uncertainty on neutral rates
- US House speaker Ryan says progress has been made on the healthcare Bill this week - Livesquawk
- Canada building permits for February -2.5% vs 1.3 estimate
- US initial jobless claims 234k vs 250k exp
- The strongest and weakest currencies as NA traders enter for the day
In other markets, the end of day snapshot shows:
- Spot gold at $1252, down -0.29% or -$3.85
- WTI crude at $51.70, up 1.06%, or +$0.55
- S&P rose by $4.54 or 0.19%
- Nasdaq increased by 14.472 or 0.25%
- Dow rose by 14.80 points ro +0.07%
- US yields were little changed across the yield curve: 2 year 1.237%. 5 year 1.856%. 10 year 2.337%. 30 year 2.983%
The market acted like there was a key employment report tomorrow (US and Canada release tomorrow), with lots of geopolitical risk from different parts of the world (Syria and N. Korea has Trump rattling the sabers), and as if a meeting between world powers was to take place (China's Xi and US's Trump will dine in Florida tonight and have meetings tomorrow on N. Korea and trade).
Putting it another way, there is a lot of risk and forex traders don't mind watching instead of trending the market with any conviction.
That idea extends to not only the dollar and the currency market, but also the bond (unchanged on the day) and stock market as well in the US (which was modestly higher). When risk is at high levels, the markets
Fundamentally today, the weekly unemployment claims came in better than expectations at 234K vs 250K estimate. The market did not really care.
In Canada, Building permits came in lower than expected at -2.5% vs 1.3 estimate. The market did not really care.
It was just a no care day.
You could see the lack of interest in the ranges.
The EURUSD which remains in a 60 pip range for the week, traded in a 55 pip trading range for the day. The pair remains above the 100 day MA below at 1.06239 but below the 100 hour MA at 1.0664 and the 200 bar MA on the 4 hour chart at the same area
The GBPUSD traded in a 56 pip trading range (the average is 100 over the last 22 days). For it, on the downside, the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.2448 and the 100 day MA at 1.2417 re[resent the downside support. On the topside, the 1.2500 level remains a key level to get to and through if this pair is going higher.
The USDJPY had a more normal day as it benefited from a rebound in stocks early in the day. The fear from yesterday's Fed minutes started to dissipate. Technically, the support at 110.61-72 attracted some buyers on the NY dip. ON the topside, although the price moved above both the 100 and 200 hour MAs at 110.86 and 110.988 respectively, the prove above the key 111.00 was rejected. Get above 111.00 will be eyed in the new day. If the price cannot, a break of the 110.61 should solicit more selling.
The USDCHF has the 100 day MA above at 1.0079 and the 100 hour MA below at 1.0027 as resistance and support. Today, the range could only muster 41 pips, and the pair stayed between those extremes.
In the USDCAD, the price of oil helped to strengthen the pair. Oil fell below key support at the $51 area but did hold a rising 100 hour MA at the lows. The subsequent rally helped to push the USDCAD toward support defined by its 100 hour MA at 1.3394. Getting and staying below that MA (and the 1.3400 natural level of support) would give the bears more control. Failure to get below, will bring in the buyers for a retest of the highs at 1.3455. Canada employment wiill be an influence tomorrow. The expectations are for a gain of about 5.7K. Watch the breakdown. Last month over 100K jobs were full time. That was a big add.
The AUDUSD traded above and below the 200 day MA today at 0.7553. We spent most of the NY session below that MA line giving more of a bearish bias. The pair may be reacting to risk off ideas on the back of the geopolitical risks.
To all the traders in the Far East who will be starting their weekend in 8 or so hours, have a great and safe weekend.
For all others, get ready for a potentially choppy day tomorrow with the employment and then weekend squaring providing the up and down volatility.
Below is a snapshot of the % changes of the major currencies vs each other. The
