Forex news for NY trading on November 5th, 2018
- Stocks close mixed. Tech lags. S&P and Dow lead the charge
- Economic calendar due from Asia today - RBA announcement coming up
- NZDUSD looks to close above the 100 day MA
- WTI crude oil settles at $63.10, down -$0.04 or -0.06%
- Italy's Tria: Signaled to Eurozone ministers he was working for compromise on budget. EURUSD trades to new highs.
- US treasury sells $37 billion of 3-year notes at 2.983%
- UK Finance minister Hammond: Smart way to reduce debt is increase growth
- ECB sources: Keen to avoid mkt disruption with switch to new capital key
- European indices end the session mixed
- The Iran sanctions are here. Crude oil trades at lowest levels since April
- UK May spokesman: There are outstanding and significant issues related to Irish backstop
- ISM nonmanufacturing index for October 60.3 versus 59.1 expected
- Markit US services PMI for October 54.8 versus 54.6 preliminary
- More Poloz...Bank of Canada has a positive outlook. Normalizing rates at the right pace.
- 100 years ago the world was also dealing with false reports of a deal
- BOC's Poloz: We're focused on the economic data
- Brexit: May and Varadkar agree that for backstop to be temporary, there must be end date
- US sanctions 50 Iranian banks as penalties fully reimposed
- BOC's Poloz: Recent developments in markets 'welcome symptoms' of normalization
- The CAD is the strongest. The CHF is the weakest as the NA session begins
In other markets:.
- Spot gold is down -$1.47 or -0.12% at $1231.51
- WTI crude oil futures $-.44 or 0.70% at $62.71. That is below the settle level of $63.10
In the US debt market, the U.S. Treasury auctioned off 37 billion of three-year notes at 2.983%. The demand was not all that great. They will auction 7 and 30 year issues tomorrow and on Wednesday. Yields went lower today but are off lowest level near the close.
US and European stocks ended the session with mixed results. The S&P and Dow ended higher. The Nasdaq was lower. In Europe, the Ibex rose by 0.20% but the FTSE MIB fell -0.56%.
In the forex market, the GBP was the strongest near the close. The CHF was the weakest, but overall, the price action was relatively quiet as traders position ahead of the US election tomorrow. The greenback was mostly lower but with the bulk of the decline vs the GBP (-0.81% on the day). The AUDUSD and NZDUSD also rose from lower levels earlier in the session.
Below is a snapshot of the % changes of the major currencies vs each other.
Fundamentally today, the GBP got its boost from Brexit deal hopes. That helped to kick the GBPUSD up through the 100 day MA at 1.3035. The pair is closing just above that level at the 1.3040 level and the close above today, is the first since October 17th. We will see if the momentum continues in the new trading day.
Other fundamental news came in the form of strong ISM non-manufacturing data. Although the number was lower than last month's 61.6 level, at 60.3 it is still not too shabby considering Septembers number was the highest since 1997. That is a long time ago.
One would think that would give the dollar a boost? Not today. The dollar did not run lower, but it did not rally either.
That may be indicative of the concerns about the election results tomorrow with the Dems expected to take the House, but the GOP expected to keep the Senate.
Time will tell of course, but if I were to make a judgement, it seems that the GOP seems to be gathering a little late momentum. Maybe it is just the memory of the 2016 election. There are a lot of close House races that are within the statistical margin of error, that can swing results one way or the other.
Although Election Day is all day tomorrow, results won't trickle in until after the polls are closed (I think 7 PM ET is the first).
The website www.fivethirtyeight.com/ has the House at 87.5% in favor of the Dems
While it tips the Senate in favor of the GOP by 83.2%.
