Talk the talk about new Forex news for North American traders on August 5, 2020
- NASDAQ closes at a record close for the 31st time in 2020
- Pres. Trump proposes moving up debates and/or adding a 4th
- California reports declining case count but deaths rise
- NASDAQ trades 11,000 for the 1st time ever
- WTI crude oil futures settle at $42.19
- France coronavirus cases rise at the fastest pace in two-months
- CDC case 49,988 vs 49,716 yesterday
- Verbatim: Exactly what Trump said about 'another big jobs number'
- Fed's Kaplan: Resurgence of virus has muted or slowed a rapid recovery
- Democratic nominee Biden to not accept party's nomination at convention
- House Speaker Pelosi: Confident lawmakers will have agreement on Covid relief
- Atlanta Fed GDP Now tracking rises to 20.3% from 19.6% previously
- European shares end the day higher. UK FTSE leads the move
- Poll Monmouth in Iowa shows Pres. Trump with a 3% lead
- Florida case count rises by 5409. Total cases above 500,000 now
- Crude oil inventories for July 31 -7.373M vs -3.335 est.
- ISM services index for the month of July (F) 58.1 vs. 55.0 estimate
- Markit services PMI for July 50.0 vs. 49.6 estimate (flash)
- Pelosi pushes her luck on stimulus but appears to have a winning hand
- Fed's Clarida: Sees economy back at pre-virus levels by end-2021
- US trade balance of goods and services for June $-50.7 billion vs. $-50.2 billion estimate
- Canada June international merchandise trade -3.19B vs -0.90B expected
- BOJ's Kuroda: Will closely monitor virus impact, won't hesitate to act
- The AUD is the strongest and the USD is the weakest as NA traders enter for the day
- US July ADP employment +167K vs +1200K expected
In other markets today:
- Spot gold is trading up $19 or 0.94% at $2038.10. Another new record all-time high was reached at $2055.79. The low price reached $2009.77
- Silver at an even stronger day to the upside. It is currently trading up $0.93 or 3.58% at $26.94. The high price extended to $27.14. The low price fell to $25.38
- WTI crude oil futures race to the highest level since early March as it searched to a session high $43.52. The low price reached $41.47 early in the session. The inventory data for the week came and with a larger than expected drawdown but not as large as the API private data. As a result there was some profit-taking against the highs for the day. The current price is trading at $42.17. That's up $0.47 or 1.13%. Technically the 50% of the 2020 range comes in at $41.71. On the topside the 200 day moving average is at $43.92.
Today, the ADP employment change data came in much weaker than expected with a rise of 167K vs 1200K estimate. The US employment statistics will be released on Friday with nonfarm payroll expected to show a 1500K increase. Although much weaker, the ADP data has not done a great job mimicking the Labor Department employment data. Case in point, the prior month's number was revised to 4313K vs 2369K initially reported (so only off by about 2 million). HMMMMM.
In other news, the trade deficit came in at $-50.7 billion. I know COVID is getting in the way, but little progress has been made in the trade deficit as it stands nearer high deficit levels.
Good news came from ISM service index which rose to 50.1 from 55.0 estimate (and preliminary).
The USD started the day as the weakest of the major currencies, and moved even lower into the London close. However, after the dollar index (DXY) fell to a low of 92.563 failed to get to and through the July 31 low of 92.546, the sellers turned to buyers in the NY afternoon session. A modest move higher has taken the DXY to 92.846 currently.
The dollar was still the weakest of the majors going into the close, but there is some potential that the double bottom may be the short term bottom as well. Tomorrow will be a key day for the greenback. PS. a new low in the DXY would be the lowest low since May 2018.
Below is a ranking of the strongest to weakest today. The CHF and EUR overtook the AUD as the strongest. The USD and JPY tightened up the battle for weakest by the close.
In other news today, the negotiations for the next coronavirus stimulus bill continues to be stalled.
It seems the GOP is leaning a little bit more toward an emergency employment number of $400 per week vs. the original post of $200. State and local relief is still a problem point of discussion according to officials
US stocks continued their run to the upside. The S&P and down close higher for the 4th consecutive trading day. The S&P is only 2% away from its all-time high. The NASDAQ index close at a record level once again. It is now on a 6 day winning streak. European shares also closed higher but with mixed up and down results.
