Forex news for North American trading on November 4 2021
- NASDAQ up for the ninth consecutive day. Dow win streak snapped.
- Ugly reversal as oil settles lower for the second day
- Preview: October non-farm payrolls by the numbers
- Major European indices close higher on the day
- White House: OPEC seems unwilling to use its power to help global recovery
- Bailey: It is not our responsibility to steer markets on interest rates
- Oil gives back most of its gains after OPEC
- The bond market is having a big re-think on the path of rates today
- Earlier US holiday spending? Or more?
- Official statement: OPEC to hike production by 400k bpd
- OPEC agrees to raise output 400k bpd, as expected - report
- JMMC supports 400k bpd planned OPEC+ increase - report
- BOE's Bailey: It was a very close call today
- BOE fails to walk the talk
- US September trade balance -$80.9B vs -$74.1B expected
- Canada Sept trade balance +$1.86B vs +$0.43B expected
- US initial jobless claims 269K vs 275K estimate
- The JPY is the strongest and the GBP is the weakest a NA traders enter for the day
- BOE leaves bank rate unchanged at 0.10% in November monetary policy meeting
There were a couple of key events that overlapped in the NY session.
- The Bank of England kept rates unchanged. The vote had the same 2 dissenters as the last meeting (Ramsden and Saunders dissented). The market was split going into the meeting. Governor Bailey did his best to confuse the market during the subsequent press conference and other comments through the day. I think Eamonn's post "Analysts tip the December Bank of England meeting as 'live' (please make it stop)" As far as the market was concerned, the benchmark 10 year yield moved from 1.07% to 0.941%. The 5 year yield had a high of 0.84% and a low at 0.632% before settling near 0.652%.
- The OPEC+ met and kept the expected output raise to 400K bpd. The price of crude oil had a wild roller coaster ride with a move up from around $80.10 to a high at $83.39 and back down to $78.28. The low remained above the swing high going back to October 2019 at $76.88. The rising 50 day MA is at $76.13. The contract is trading at $79.36 in late trading.
In other markets as the markets look toward the start of Friday trading is showing:
- Spot gold is up $22.47 or 1.26% at $1791.
- Spot silver is up $0.28o or1.23% at $23.78
- Bitcoin is don around $1500 at $61397
In the US stock market today, the Nasdaq and S&P closed at record levels again. The Nasdaq is up for the 9th consecutive day. The Dow snapped it 4 consecutive record close string. The S&P closed higher for the 6th consecutive day.
Below are the close, change, highs, lows, % and price changes at highs and low, etc. The indices closed closer to their highs for the day
In the US debt market, rates moved lower a day after the FOMC meeting where Fed Chair announced a $15B per month taper, but also expressed no hurry to speed taper up (or raise rates). The benchmark 10 year yield fell -4.6 bps. The 5 year fell a greater -7.1 basis points (that helped the commodities like gold and silver move higher and also the Nasdaq index).
In the forex, the GBP tumbled and was the weakest of the majors today. The GBPUSD had a high to low range of 225 pips and traded to the lowest level since October 1 (most to the downside). The pair is trading above and below 1.3500 level into the close. That will be a close barometer but as long as the price can stay below 1.3572, the sellers should feel ok.
The EURUSD tested the cluster of swing lows going back to October between 1.15237 to 1.15455. The low reached 1.1526 before bouncing and closing above the highest of the lows at 1.15455. The 1.15710 to 1.1580 (where the 100 hour MA is found) is topside resistance into the new trading day.
The USDJPY trades back below the 100/200 hour MAs at 113.95 and 113.876 respectively (trades at 113.75) but stayed above the low for the week from Tuesday at 113.455. Stay below the MAs and the tilt is to the sellers but the pair is still above the low for the week and above the other swing lows for the week going back to October 13 (down to 113.21). Ultimately if the pair is going lower, getting below the 113.21 is needed. On a move above the MAs instead, the bias moves back to the upside with 114.20 to 114. 31 as the next target followed by 114.45 (and the high from October at 114.691).
