Forex news for NY trading on November 26, 2018
- US stocks end the session with strong gains
- CFTC Commitments of Traders: Euro shorts ramp up
- Trump tells GM CEO that she 'has a problem' if facilities closed for long
- Trump: Brexit deal sounds like a good deal for the EU
- Saudi Arabia said to be keen to agree to oil output cut - report
- Goldman Sachs doesn't see much support in oil until $45.47
- Barclays: Trump-Xi ceasefire would provide a short-lived reprieve for risk assets
- US sells 2-year notes at 2.836% vs 2.840% WI bid
- European shares end with solid gains
- GM to close 5 plants in North American, 2 plants outside North America
- Dallas Fed November manufacturing activity 17.6 vs 29.4 prior
- WTO: Trade growth to weaken further in Q4
- Draghi: World trade growth momentum has slowed 'considerably'
- May: Cabinet agreed to continue preparations for 'no deal' Brexit
- Draghi: Recent economic data have been weaker than expected
- US October Chicago Fed national activity index +0.24 vs +0.17 prior
- The AUD is the strongest. The JPY is the weakest as the NA session begins
- ForexLive European morning FX news wrap: Risk rallies as Italy budget worries cool down
A snapshot of other markets near the US close
- Spot gold down -$0.50 or -0.04% at $1222.69
- WTI crude oil futures up $1.28 or 2.54% at $51.70
- Bitcoin on Coinbase is trading down -$402 at $3646. The digital currency did bounce up to $4090 after reaching a low of $3508 but traders are taking the price back lower now. The price crossed $6000 on November 14th, $5000 on November 19th, $4000 on November 24th. It has not been a great 2nd half of November.
In the US debt market today, yields opened higher and staying higher throughout the day. The 10 year moved closer to the 3.0% level at 3.039% at the lows for the day. The last time the 10 year yield was below the 3% level was back on September 18. The high yield since then extended to 3.259% (on October 9th). The yield reached 3.24% on November 7th.
European yields ended the session mixed with flows moving to the risky countries including Spain (down -7 bps), Italy (down -13.8 bps) and Portugal (down -5.6 bps). Italy budget concerns were abated and that led to a flow into risk and out of safety.
The European stocks ended the session with solid gains led by the FTSE MIB (up 2.77%). In the US, the Nasdaq rose 2.06%. The S&P closed up 1.55% and ended the session near unchanged on the year. Tomorrow, could be a key bias day for US stocks. A move higher would be more bullish. A move lower, would be keep the sellers more in control (see post here).
Fundamentally today the Chicago Fed Manufacturing index was higher than expectations. The Dallas Fed Manufacturing index was lower than expectations. Draghi spoke more cautiously in his testimony to the EU parliament.
In the forex market, the NZD was the strongest but the biggest moves were in the JPY pair. Looking at the % changes of the major currencies vs. each other shows that most of the moves against pairs not having the JPY were relatively modest (NZDCHF was the biggest mover at 0.18%).
In contrast, the changes of the major currencies vs the JPY were between 0.43% and 0.62%. So all the action was mostly out of the JPY - at least at the end of the day.
During the trading day though, the major currency pairs showed moves higher (or lower) and moves lower (or higher).
For the EURUSD, the price moved from a low of 1.1325 to a high of 1.1383 and back down to a low of 1.1324 reached in the last hour of trading. The Draghi softness helped to send the pair lower in the NY session. The 1.1321-252 is an swing low support area (lows from Nov 16, November 23rd and earlier today (of course).
The GBPUSD had a very similar up and down range. It moved up from a low of 1.2795, to a London/NY session high at 1.2864. The NY low near the close reached down to 1.2803. The pair is closing below its 100 hour MA at 1.28188. That will be a barometer for the bulls and bears in the new trading day.
The USDJPY trended higher today and reached a swing area in the 113.572-699 area. The high price reached between the levels at 113.65 helped by the buoyant stock market but is looking to close just off the 113.572 level. Stay below 113.699 in the new day could see more downside potential.
The USDCAD had a down and up day, but not only erased the earlier declines, but moved even higher. Technically, the price has moved to test the 1.32577-628 swing area with the high price reaching 1.3261 (see post outlining the level here). Sellers leaned on the first text. If that level stalls the rally again, the 100 hour MA at 1.32377 will be a level below to eye for bullish/bearish clues. Stay above and the bulls remain in control. Move below, and the bias shifts back to the downside again.
That is it for me in what has been a down and up day for the forex markets. Wishing you all good fortune in your trading.
