Forex news for trading on July 26, 2018
- Nasdaq tumbles. S&P down, but Dow up
- Trump could be ready to order a strike on Iran
- Macron: France, EU never wanted trade war with the US
- Crude oil futures settle at $69.61. Up $0.31.
- Dollar trying to inch higher
- US treasury auctions 7 year note at 2.93%. Right on the screws.
- Trump: Very big phase of health care to come
- Midday snapshot of the markets. Europe stocks up. US stocks mixed.
- US Commerce Sec. Ross: Trade deal with EU is real vindication of Trump approach
- UK Brexit minister Raab grabs the microphone
- US Kudlow: Juncker made it clear to Trump that would help with China problem
- EU Barnier: We must bring new energy to Brexit talks
- US Lighthizer: My hope is to have Mexico conclusion on NAFTA soon
- KC Fed Manufacturing index for July comes in at 23 vs 25 est.
- Lighthizer: We're close to finishing negotiations on NAFTA, China will be longer-term problem
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow comes in at 3.8%, down from 4.5% for 2Q growth
- Morgan Stanley says US GDP growth will be strong, but it won't last
- Four things we learned from the ECB meeting
- Draghi Q&A: We took note of Trump-Juncker meeting. It's a good sign
- Mnuchin: Priority is concluding a NAFTA deal now that Mexican election over
- Draghi's opening statement: Economy proceeding along solid, broad based growth path
- US initial jobless claims 217K vs 215K expected
- US June prelim wholesale inventories 0.0% vs +0.3% expected
- US advance goods trade balance for June -68.3B vs -$67.0B estimate
- US June prelim durable goods orders +1.0 vs +3.0% expected
In other markets:
- Gold down $9 to $1223
- WTI crude up 31-cents to $69.61
US stocks were mixed. European stocks were higher. Below are the % changes and ranges for the major indices:
In the US debt market yields have moved up a bit with a flatter yield curve:
European 10 year rates were mostly higher:
In the forex market, the USD led. The AUD lagged.
The Trump-Juncker deal euphoria from a day ago, was replaced by a tumbling Facebook shares. The social media company actuallly beat earnings by a few cents, but guided future earnings and revenues lower and the stock tumpbled 19% (and knocked off over $110B of market capitalization - a record).
Regarding the Trump-Juncker deal, there was some comments from the US and EU camp today that seems to suggest the deal may not be as easy as once thought.
- Trump wants to do a big deal
- France's Macron says is not ready for a vast trade agreement
- Trump said EU would buy soybeans immediately
- Macron says to keep agriculture out of it
- Trump implied steel and aluminum tariffs would end. Commerce secretary Ross said they will still be in effect until a new deal is complete.
- Macron says US must make clear intentions over "illegal" steel and aluminum tariffs.
There are a lot of countries in the EU to satisfy and 24 hours after the fact, one has spoke up so far and there are some issues.
In other EU news, the ECB kept rates unchanged. Mario Draghi, a month after saying that the ECB would not be tightening until after the summer of 2019 (I still find that strange), said the same thing. Adam highlighted the 4 takeaways and quite frankly, after an early rise in the EURUSD, it fell and then fell some more. For the day, the pair shed 0.7% and in the process, fell below the 50% of the move up from last week's low at 1.1661.
The USDJPY moved above the 100 hour MA today after trading making a new low since July 9th earlier in the day. The move back above the 100 hour MA (at 111.12) was the first break above since falling below on July 19th
The GBPUSD fell as well today and in the process moved below its 100 and 200 hour MA at 1.3141 and 1.31198 respectively. It closed near the lows for the day at 1.3103.
In other fundamentals today:
- Durable goods missed on headline, but the other pieces were a little better
- Inventories were lower (a drain on GDP)
- Initial claims were about as expected. No problem in jobs still
- Trade deficit got even more negative (what happens when new trade deals are in place and the deficits don't disappear?)
The data actual (inventory and trade) were actually a negative for GDP tomorrow. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow- which has been one of the higher estimates for 2Q growth - lowered their expectations to 3.8% from 4.5%. The President is hoping for "something with a 4% handle". GDP will be released at 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT.
