Forex news for trading on March 21, 2016
- US stocks hit the skids. All major indices down over 1%
- North Korean envoy ramps up the nuclear weapons development talk
- BOC's Schembri: Q4 GDP was stronger than expected but analysis suggests caution
- US WTI crude oil settles at $47.34/bbl
- What if stocks correct to MA levels?
- Lower yields are good for mortgage rates: Zillow
- USDJPY falls to session lows
- A snapshot of the markets
- Macron to best Le Pen 60.5/39.5 in latest IFOP poll
- Fed's George: Fed is moving into a critical time now
- NZD: No easing bias from the RBNZ this week: 5 reasons - Credit Agricole
- I'm facing another psychological battle with my EURUSD longs
- It's getting ugly now as the S&P 500 breaks the March low, USD/JPY breaks 112.00
- Fed's Kashkari: Politics mostly behind the improvement in markets
- Another oil pop flops
- Russia doesn't rule out extending OPEC cooperation by 6 months
- New Zealand GDT dairy price index 1.7% vs -6.3% prior
- More talk of low real rates as Blackrock says they will make Fed move faster
- Here's why EURGBP will be the best Brexit pair to trade
- Reading the technical story: EURUSD holds support. Works toward key resistance today.
- Will more Fed heads try and ride to the rescue of the dollar?
- March 2017 US Philly Fed non-manufacturing activity index 35.4 vs 29.3 prior
- Canadian January retail sales +2.2% vs +1.5% expected
- Q4 2016 US current account balance -$112.4bn vs -$128.2bn exp
Summary of the other markets
- The US stocks are ending the day sharply lower. The S&P index closed down -29 points or -1.24%. The Nasdaq index is lower by -107 points or -1.83% (OUCH). The Dow is down -237 points or -1.14%
- In the US debt market yields are lower. The 2 years is down -3.5 bps to 1.255%. The 5 year is down -4.1 bps to 1.943%. The 10 year is down -4.3 bps to 2.417%
- Spot gold is ending up $10.41 or +0.84%
- WTI Crude oil is lower by -$0.88 or -1.82% to $47.34 as it continues to wander lower and away from the $50-$55 area that confined the pair since early December 2017.
The US dollar was lower in trading today. The greenback was hurt as stocks got crushed. Bond yields also fell as traders steered flows into the relative safety of the treasuries. The 10 year yield is down to 2.417%. It reached a high of 2.62% on March 13th.
Gold prices pushed to the highest level since March 2nd trading up to $1247.78 at the peak. The 1249.08 level is the 50% of the move down from the 2016 high. The price moved above that level in early March on the way to a corrective high of $1263 and the 200 day MA (currently at 1261.17). That rally could not sustain the break above the 200 day MA and the price corrected. The price is moving back toward that 50% level. The lower dollar is helping to propel the yellow metal higher.
As far as economic news, Canada retail sales were stronger than expectations at 2.2% for January (prior month revised to -0.4% from -0.5%). The better data sent the USDCAD to the downside, breaking below its 100 day MA in the process at 1.3295 and scooting to a low of of 1.3262. However, as oil worked lower and there was a move out of the risk pairs (include AUD and NZD in that risky subset), the price rebounded back above the 100 day MA and the pair raced back toward the highs for the day. The move stalled ahead of the earlier day high at 1.3357, but the rally was good enough to pierce back above the pairs 100 hour MA at 1.3330.
The USDJPY had more of a direct move in its trading in the NY session. After rallying in the early London session the pair moved back toward unchanged about the time of the US stock market opening. After an early gain in the stocks, it was clear sellers were interested to taking control today. The major indices moved lower and with it, so did the USDJPY (and the JPY crosses). The pair is closing near the low levels for the day as stocks hit the skids into the close. That low corresponds with the 38.2% of the move up from the September 22 low (at 111.564 - see chart below).
The EURUSD pushed higher in trading today on the back of the dollars weakness. However, it stalled right at the 50% of the move down from the Election day high at the 1.0819 level. That was the high for the day. Get above in the new day (and stay above (really support extends down to the 1.0793 area.
The GBPUSD was pushed higher on the back of higher inflation today. The pair moved back above the 100 day MA at the 1.2412 level on the news and shot up toward trend lines (see chart below) and the key 1.2500 level. Higher inflation news in the face of the statement from the BOE last week, has the traders ignoring the imminent Article 50 trigger next week (it is just the beginning anyway) and focusing on potential central bank policy. Nevertheless, watch 1.2500 in the new day.
The AUDUSD tried for the 2nd day in a row to get above the 0.7730-55 area only to fail. The price fell back below the ceiling area (see daily chart) and is ending near the lows. The 100 hour MA was broken in the last few hours of trading at the 0.7702 level. Stay below in the new trading day now and the 38.2% of the move up from the March 9th low comes in at 0.7650. The 200 hour MA is at 0.7627 (and moving higher).
Twenty four hours from now the RBNZ are expected to say they keep rates unchanged. Today the price moved higher after higher GDT prices but fell with the US stocks. The 100 bar MA on the 4 hour chart is support now at 0.7000 area. The topside has resistance at 0.7100 up to 0. 7109 where the 100 day MA AND the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour cut across. That is a key level going forward....
Below is a snapshot of the % changes of the major currencies vs each other. The GBP is the strongest currency for the day, while the AUD is the weakest.
