Forex news for NY trading on December 20, 2018
- Another day. Another down day for stocks.
- Crude oil futures settle at $45.88
- Former NY Fed chief Dudley: Fed does not care about market prices
- Paul Ryan: Trump will not sign the Senate budget bill
- If I were to pick a bottom in the S&P....
- Crude oil runs to a support target. Seeing a bounce. Is the bottom in place?
- European shares end with big declines
- Pelosi: Funding for Trump's border wall is a non-starter
- U.S. and allies to condemn China for economic espionage
- US leading index for November 0.2% versus 0.0% estimate
- No Fed help, no problem: Gold rises to highest since July
- Canada November ADP employment +39K vs +2K prior
- US December Philly Fed +9.4 vs +15.0 expected
- US initial jobless claims 214K versus 215K estimate
- Canada October wholesale trade +1.0% vs +0.4% expected
- The EUR is the strongest. The USD is the weakest as NA traders enter for day
IN other markets near the end of day:
- Spot gold rallied strongly on dollar selling and flight to safety buying. It is up $17.44 or 1.4% at $1260.41
- WTI crude oil is down -$1.97 or -4.09% at $46.20. The low reached $45.67 which got close to a retracement at $45.57
- Bitcoin on Coinbase continued the short covering rally. It is trading up $300 at $3962. The high price extended to $4175. The 38.2% of the move down from the November high comes in at $4432. Keep that level in mind on more upside momentum. There may be a stall near that level.
The European and US stocks had another rough day. When the best performer is -0.8% on the day, that is not good. The Dow fell -1.99%. Spain's Ibex and Italy's FTSE MIB fell -1.97% and -1.93% respectively. The US stocks did not really like debt ceiling problems coming out of Washington today. With the dollar going down today (and EUR, GBP higher) the European shares did not like that idea.
The snapshot of the US debt market is showing higher yields. Despite the hike in rates yesterday yields fell. Today, the market reversed the downward trend. The 30 year yield moved back above the 3.0% after dipping to 2.956% at the day's low. Remember, Powell indicated that the so call QT (or quantitative tightening) will continue on auto-pilot. That, combined with higher deficits, is not good for supply. More supply, should/could push rates higher. That contributed to the rebound today.
In the 10 year benchmark 10 year notes, the yields were mostly lower. German 10 year at 0.228% is low. In fact, it is the back to the lowest level since June 2017.
The snapshot of the forex market today is showing the JPY is the strongest, while the CAD is the weakest. The USD was also weaker today.
The USDJPY continued its trend move lower on the back of a falling global stock market and general dollar selling on the failure of Washington to come to an agreement on a debt extension bill. Technically, however, the steady trend move lower did stall right by key support defined by the 200 day MA (at 110.865) and the 38.2% of the 2018 trading range (at 110.745). The low for the day reached 110.81. The price is trading pup at 111.29 into the close with the 111.37 swing low from October a key barometer for bulls and bears into the new trading day.
The EURUSD was one of the pairs today that had lots of up and down volatility.The pair trended higher into the London session but stalled right at the 100 day MA at 1.1485 level. The subsequent fall, saw the price correct to the 38.2% of the December trading range. Support held at that level - at 1.1402. The afternoon rally to the price all the way back to the 100 day MA where once again, sellers came in. In between the 100 day MA above and the 38.2% below is the 1.1437-42. Watch that level for intraday bias clues and traders swing up and down.
As mentioned the CAD was the weakest currency today, but is ending the day near unchanged levels vs the USD. Oil price continued to be an influence as the price of crude moved toward a support target at $45.57 (see comment above). That support did hold and it helped to take the USDCAD off it's highs into the close (see technical commentary here).
For the GBPUSD, the 1.2700 area did a good job of putting a lid on the pair. On the downside a trend line and 100 hour MA stalled the fall (see post). Those are the levels to eye in the new day for the next run.
