Forex news for November 10, 2020
- Rotation out of NASDAQ into Dow for the 2nd consecutive day
- San Francisco Mayor rolls back some reopenings after virus uptick
- Feds George: Was encouraged by 3Q bounce back in economy
- WTI crude oil futures settle at $41.36
- Sen Maj Leader McConnell: Sees no need for multi trillion dollar coronavirus relief bill
- Decision Desk HQ: Trump won the state of North Carolina
- Fed's Daly: Sees moderate, gradual recovery going forward
- UK Covid cases come in at 20,412 vs. 21,350 yesterday
- US Sec of State Pompeo: There will be a smooth transition to a 2nd Trump administration
- US treasury sells 10 year note at 0.960% vs. 0.962% WI level
- France's Macron spoke with President-elect Biden
- Fed's Kaplan: Real downside risks over next two quarters if there is a new lockdown
- Dr Fauci: Expect approval of Pfizer Covid vaccine to go smoothly
- EIA oil projections for US crude and petroleum markets
- Italy has 35,098 new coronavirus cases vs. 25,271 the prior day
- European shares end the session with gains
- Fed's Daly: Fed's policy is in a really good place
- Even more from Rosengren....
- More from Boston Fed Pres. Rosengren. Stocks continue their decline
- ECB's Knot: Fiscal policy must take the lead in pandemic fight
- Fed's Kaplan: Rebound next year will be back and loaded
- Fed's Rosengren: More fiscal and monetary accommodation is appropriate
- JOLTS job openings for September 6436 vs. 6500 estimate
- EU clears hurdle to unlock €1.8 trillion budget, stimulus
- Fed's Kaplan: Jury is out on Q4 because of virus
- The GBP is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest as NA trader enter for the day
The trading today in the forex saw the USD mixed with most of the modest changes in the GBP (-0.69%), the CHF (+0.28%) and CAD (+0.25%). THe other major currencies vs the USD saw modest changes (0.12% or less from unchanged). The dollar was higher vs the CHF, CAD, and down vs the NZD and JPY and GBP. The greenback was unchanged vs the EUR and AUD.
The GBP was the strongest by far. However, in the US session, the pair waffled back and forth in a relatively narrow range. That was part and parcel for most of the pairs vs the USD.
The CHF and CAD were the weakest. The JPY, USD, AUD, EUR and NZD were relatively little changed (mixed).
There was plenty of Fedspeak today, with Kaplan, Rosengren, Daly each speaking. Most expressed concerns about the risk from slower growth (and perhaps another lockdown) from Covid. Most expressed the need for increased fiscal stimulus and that the Fed would continue to keep rates low.
In the stock market today, the flow of funds continued out of the Nasdaq stocks and into the Dow 30. The Dow rose 262.95 points after rising by around 834 points yesterday. The Nasdaq meanwhile, fell -159.92 points after falling -181 points yesterday. In between, was the S&P which rose 41 points yesterday, but fell -5 points today.
In the US debt market, the yields rose with the yield curve steepening a bit (to 77.03 basis points from 75.29 basis points yesterday).
Some technical levels to eye in the new day
- EURUSD: The EURUSD fell below the rising 100 hour MA in the London session and spent most of the day below the MA level. The MA comes in at 1.18239. The price is at 1.1816 into the close. Stay below is more bearish with a move below 1.1800 having traders looking toward the 50% midpoint of the range since the low last week at 1.17606 and the 200 hour MA at 1.1746 and moving higher. A move above the 100 hour MA with momentum, would look toward 1.1850 and then 1.1864-69.
- GBPUSD. The GBPUSD from the daily chart has swing high resistance in the 1.3266 to 1.3283 area. The pair is trading at 1.3275 going into the close - within that swing area. That area should be the barometer for the new trading day. Move above is more bullish. Find sellers here, and there could be a rotation lower.
- USDJPY: The USDJPY has close support at 105.10-18 (swing lows and highs from the hourly chart today). The pair trades at 105.24 into the close. On the topside, the price did trade above last week's high at 105.338. A move above could see a run back to the upside at 105.644.
- AUDUSD: The AUDUSD fell below support from yesterday at 0.7266 but the run to the downside stalled just ahead of the rising 100 hour MA and the pair moved marginally higher into the close. The 100 hour MA is now at 0.72583. It would take a move below that MA to solicit a more bearish bias. The price has not been below the 100 hour Ma since November 4th.
