Forex news for North American trade on Oct 1, 2018:
- ISM September manufacturing index 59.8 vs 60.0 expected
- UK said to plan compromise on Irish border to get Brexit deal - report
- Dombrovskis: Initial assessment is that Italy budget not compatible with pact
- US September final Markit manufacturing PMI 55.6 vs 55.6 expected
- Canada September Markit manufacturing PMI 54.8 vs 56.8 prior
- Jucker: If Italy wants further special treatment, that would end the euro
- Fed's Rosengren: FOMC likely to need to reach mildly restrictive area
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 GDP tracker 4.1% vs 3.6% prior
- Raab: I'm convinced EU's Barnier wants a Brexit deal
- Raab: We have a deal within sight if we can deal with issues
- Trump: This is a terrific deal for all sides
- Trudeau: USMCA will bring US and Canada even closer together
- Fed's Kashkari: Not seeing any effect on US economy from tariffs
- OPEC output rises 30K bpd in September
- US August construction spending +0.1% vs +0.4% expected
- Raab: We have a deal within sight if we can deal with issues
Markets:
- Gold down $4 to $1189
- WTI crude oil up $2.39 to $75.86
- S&P 500 up 11 points to 2924
- US 10-year yields up 2 bps to 3.08%
- CAD leads, JPY lags
October brought a new NAFTA deal and a big rally for the Canadian dollar. USD/CAD hit a four-month low of 1.2783 before bouncing to 1.2810 at the close. It was a surprisingly low volatility day in CAD trade.
Cable was the headline mover on a report that May was working on an Irish border backstop compromise. Only the initial headline made it sound more like a deal and the algos pumped GBP/USD up by a full cent to 1.3116. It eventually gave back nearly all the gains to finish at 1.3039.
EUR/USD was weak in a slide down to 1.1564 in a dip to the lowest since Sept 9 and a fourth day of losses. Italy remains the story with a battle shaping up with Brussels. Italian 10-year yields were up 15 bps to 3.30%.
US equity markets chopped around but USD/JPY didn't do much as it traded between 113.90-114.05, hitting each side a few times and finishing right around the figure.
