Forex news for New York trade on February 1, 2021:
- ISM January US manufacturing PMI 58.7 vs 60.0 expected
- Markit January final US manufacturing PMI 59.2 vs 59.1 prelim
- Markit January Canada manufacturing PMI 54.4 vs 57.9 prior
- US construction spending for December 1.0% vs. 0.8% estimate
- Fed's Rosengren says we're still in the depths of a recession
- SNB's Jordan: Swiss economy may contract in Q4
- Merkel: Can offer vaccine to all Germans by end of summer
- Fed's Kaplan: We're looking for persistent trends in inflation, not transitory ones
- Fed's Kashkari: Real unemployment rate is around 10%
- US congressional budget office forecasts GDP in 2021 at 4.6%
- Seasonals: Quick hits on what's strong and weak in February
Markets:
- Gold up $14 to $1862
- WTI crude up $1.30 to $53.49
- US 10-year yields flat at 1.07%
- S&P 500 up 60 points to 3773
- USD leads, CHF lags
The FX and equity worlds were not on the same page today, which is undoubtedly a story of new month flows. Stocks were cheerful but the US dollar held a strong bid, even against commodity currencies like CAD despite a strong day for oil.
The dollar finished near its best levels of the day, sending the euro down to 1.2062 and cable back to 1.3664 after 1.3750 held on the topside.
Economic data continued to paint a mixed picture but I can't say it was any kind of driver today. Strong manufacturing and rising prices paid is the baseline right now and the market is waiting for more news.
One thing that does strike me is how strong oil and commodities were despite the dollar bid. We'll see if it holds up.
