Forex news and trading headlines for the European session 20 February 2015
The data
- January 2015 German PPI -0.6% vs -0.4% exp m/m
- February 2015 French Markit manufacturing PMI flash 47.7 vs 49.5 exp
- February 2015 French Markit services PMI flash 53.4 vs 49.8 exp
- February 2015 German Markit manufacturing PMI flash 50.9 vs 51.5 exp
- February 2015 German Markit services PMI flash 55.5 vs 54.2 exp
- December 2014 Italian industrial orders +4.5% vs -1.10% prior SA
- Greek current account balance Dec EUR -0.87bln vs -0.244bln Dec 2013
- UK Public Sector Net Borrowing Requirement Jan GBP-9.4bln vs -9.3bln exp
- January 2015 UK retail sales -0.3% vs -0.2% exp m/m
- January 2015 Italian HICP final -0.5% vs -0.4% exp y/y
The news
- Eurozone and Greece have covered around 80% of ground for agreement
- Abe's Japan with a plan
- Greece has done all it should to find a solution
- Austria's Schelling says Greece must respect conditions of bailout
- Pound falling being blamed on old McCafferty story
Greek PM Tsipras says he is "certain" that his request for 6 month extension with conditions will be accepted
Plenty of action through the session today but not a solitary reason you can put your finger on.
It started with Swiss pairs waking up with on viagra and EUR/CHF pushed up through 1.0800 to a 1.0811 high. USD/CHF wasn't far behind as it ran through 0.9500 to 0.9536. As always the spectre of the SNB having a hand in the moves was prevalent.
The euro started to go on the slide around the same time with EUR/USD dropping 20 odd pips. Then yen pairs decided they had vertigo and dropped like a stone. USD/JPY fell to 118.59 from 118.85, EUR/JPY dropped from 135.00 into strong buying interest at 134.00. GBP/JPY did even better by losing over 120 pips to 182.12
EUR/USD then dropped further as manufacturing in Europe floundered. It was countered somewhat by rising services data but the seed was sewn and we fell to 1.1304. A Greek headline that a deal was 80% done helped a 50 pip bounce but it lasted not and down we came again to 1.1312. EUR/GBP fell to a new low through the 200 mma at 0.7340 then broke the high to 0.7380
GBP/USD shed a quick 80 pips ahead of the retail data which wasn't bad but wasn't good either. After the event it followed the euro up 40 pips to 1.5390 from 1.5350 before breaking lower to 1.5344 where support lies in wait. Back to 1.5372 we are as I type
There's Russian military news doing the rounds which isn't helping risk trades and there looks to be a run to yields with the aussie getting a bid on through 0.7800 to 0.7848.
With Greece and the eurogroup meeting, Ukraine and a European economy to worry about it's making for some choppy movements. Take care nearer the meeting which starts at 14.00 gmt 15.30 gmt but with no definitive time for a conclusion, The general consensus is that a deal is close but it won't take much of a headline to turn that around
