Forex trading news and economic data headlines for the European session 1 July 2016
News:
- UK's Osborne says good-bye to his fiscal target
- UK PM hopeful Gove says Brexit gives opportunity to re-boot UK
- More from Gove: No expectation of Article 50 being triggered by end of 2016
- JP Morgan and HSBC both see BOE cutting rates in July
- Pound under pressure again as European trading gets underway
- ECB's Praet says they can make decisions very quickly when needed
- ECB's Nowotny says they will give timely signal on whether QE will be extended
- ECB not considering abandoning capital key in QE buys
- More from Praet: Negative interest rates have a damaging impact on banking sector
- ECB's Coeure says Eurozone growth will suffer from Brexit uncertainty
- European cohesion is in danger after Brexit decision
- PBOC denies intervention reports
- Yuan falls to 5 1/2 year lows vs USD as PBOC fails to intervene
- US Fed's Bullard says they could use discount window in a crisis
- BOJ May core CPI ex- energy, fresh foods, yy +0.8% as expected
- Reuters poll says economists see RBA holding interest rates in July
- Option expiries 10 am NY cut today 1 July
- Nikkei 225 closes up +0.68% at 15,682.48
Data:
- UK Markit mftg June PMI 52.1 vs 50.1 exp
- Eurozone May unemployment rate 10.1 as expected
- Italy unemployment rate May 11.5% vs 11.6% exp
- Eurozone Markit June mftg PMI final 52.8 vs 52.6 exp
- Germany Markit/BME June mftg PMI final 54.5 vs 54.4 exp
- France Markit June mftg PMI final 48.3 vs 47.9 exp
- Italy Markit/ADACI June mftg PMI June 53.5 vs 52.4 expected
- Australia commodity index June yy -9.9% vs -9.1% prev
A busy enough start to July but ranges have been relatively limited by recent comparison.
The pound started off with a look lower as Europe was waking up but cable found support below 1.3280 and we bounced back to 1.3325 on UK mftg PMI only to retreat again and that became the pattern of the morning. News that UK fin min Osborne was abandoning fiscal targets so a further test lower around 1.3260 but once again we bounced back. EURGBP found itself in a similar pattern between 0.8330-80.
EURUSD has been trying to cling on to gains above 1.1100 after better than expected PMI data of its own but has once again been pulled around by cross ccy plays with EURJPY finding support into 113.60 and rallying to 114.25 as I type.
Early GBPJPY supply saw USDJPY test support around 102.50 before steadying while USDCHF has been largely on the back foot in proportion to EURUSD gains.
AUDUSD has been underpinned but failed into 0.7500 where large option expiries cast a shadow and USDCAD has seen some two-way but ultimately in retreat again toward 1.2900 after failure into 1.2980 again.
So, a new month but same old uncertainty with markets and traders clutching at straws as the hot air only serves to fan the post-Brexit flames.
