Forex trading news and economic data headlines 31 March 2017
Dec ECB rate hike expectations drop after inflation data
Draghi gets some extra policy legroom as inflation falls back
February 2017 Italian PPI data 0.3% vs 1.1% prior m/m
ECB is not at the lower bound but we don't know that level says Coeure
ECB's Coeure: Incoming data has shifted the balance of risks to neutral
March 2017 Italian HICP flash 1.3% vs 1.6% exp y/y
March 2017 Eurozone CPI flash 1.5% vs 1.8% exp y/y
Q4 2016 UK GDP final 0.7% vs 0.7% exp q/q
Starting a parallel Brexit and new future deal talks are not possible says Donald Tusk
January 2017 Spain current account balance 0.41bn vs 3.40bn prior
Germany's Gabriel says EU should file a complaint to the WTO about the US duties
March 2017 German unemployment rate 5.8% vs 5.9% exp
EU is ready to open trade talks with UK before Brexit
The yen drives the bus for the rest of the FX world again
February 2017 Spain retail sales 0.0% vs 0.1% prior y/y
ECB's Knot wants scale back QE over a 5 month period
March 2017 France HICP flash 1.4% vs 1.4% exp y/y
March 2017 UK Nationwide HPI -0.3% vs 0.4% exp m/m
February 2017 German retail sales 1.8% vs 0.7% exp m/m
February 2017 Japan housing starts 0.940m vs 0.953m ann
RBA to hike or cut rates early 2018
Economic data due Friday 31 March 2017
February 2017 Japanese vehicle production 11.2% vs 3.8% prior y/y
ANZ look ahead to a big week for Australia: RBA, more RBA, and still more!
How about that for an oxymoronic headline?
A morning of prices, shopping and more central bank waffling. Germany kicked off the card with a nice jump in retail sales. The euro did nothing. French CPI held the line. The Euro did nothing. ECB's Knot said he wants to taper QE over 5 months. The Euro did nothing. Eurozone inflation dropped 5 pips, 3 worse than expected. Guess what happened? 1.0670-1.0697 is the range so far. The only real mover was the yen, which once again saw early buying as Asia swapped sessions with Europe. GBPJPY led the way with just shy of 100 pip move from top to bottom. EURJPY was around half that. USDJPY looked to be sitting pretty above 112.00 first thing but it soon sunk under to 111.70. Another brief look at the big figure failed and we're back at 111.83.
GBPUSD is still looking hard done by from the JPY moves as 1.2500 failed early on and a steady decline brought lows of 1.2434. There's a definitive bearish trend on the 15m chart but it will take a hold below 1.2440 to bring further downside.
The buck remains fairly buoyant against the likes of the Swissy, CAD and Aussie, the likes of which are on session lows vs the dollar. USDCHF is just about holding on to 1.1000, USDCAD is 16 pips off the 1.3368 highs and AUDUUSD is 7 off the 0.7633 lows.
Attention now switches to the Us for some inflation data by way of PCE prices. Feb PCE is expected in at 2.1% vs 1.9% prior y/y, the core in unchanged ta 1.7% y/y. The numbers come alongside the personal income and consumption data. That's at 12.30 GMT and is joined by the monthly Canadian GDP data.
For all the rest of the releases today, click the 3rd link from the bottom in the above headlines.
