Forex news from the European trading session - 30 April 2018
Headlines:
- Italy CPI April M/M 0.1% vs +0.2% expected
- Hedge fund manager predicting rise in oil prices
- North Rhine Westphalia April CPI m/m 0.0% vs +0.4% prior
- FTSE 100 gets a boost from Sainsbury's purchase of Asda
- Brandenburg April CPI m/m -0.1% vs +0.4% prior
- SNB total sight deposits w.e. 27 April CHF 575.2 bn vs CHF 575.4 bn prior
- Eurozone March YoY M3 Money Supply +3.7%. vs 4.1% expected
- Swiss April KOF leading indicator +105.3 vs +106 expected
- Saxony April CPI m/m 0.0% vs +0.4% prior
- British business has been in a confident mood
- Italy's center-right coalition may seek minority government mandate - report
- Northern Irish DUP leader says Barnier is "not an honest broker"
- Barnier says no UK deal until Ireland is satisfied with border solution
- Germany March retail sales m/m -0.6% vs +0.8% expected
- Fitch says inter-Korean summit eases tensions, but does not eliminate risks
Markets:
- USD leads, NZD lags behind on the day
- European equities higher on the day, UK FTSE leads
- Gold down by 0.46% to $1,317.22
- WTI down by 1.04% to $67.39
- US 10-year yields up by 0.7 bps to 2.964%
- Bitcoin up by 2.4% to $9,192
Brand new week, same old US dollar.
There wasn't much key headlines or data on the session, with the most notable of which being German state CPI figures (national figures due at 1200 GMT). Most of them were underwhelming on the m/m readings but the y/y figures were still holding up. But as noted here, this April - with Easter falling earlier - we will likely see Eurozone inflation figures skewed because of the timing of the Easter holiday.
And right on queue, the Saxony CPI report showed where the key areas were weak and they were passenger air transport, package holidays, and hotels - all travel-related prices which surround the Easter holiday.
Apart from that, the general theme in the currency market has been that of dollar strength. There wasn't much push and pull with the dollar leading the way since Asian trading already before extending gains as European traders coming into the picture.
EUR/USD inched lower from 1.2120 levels to touch a low of 1.2098 before trading just above the 1.2100 levels at the moment. One of the bigger decliners has been cable, falling to a low of 1.3727 after taking out Friday's low of 1.3747. The lack of support levels means that the next key level to eye for the pair is 1.3712 - the 1 March low highlighted here.
USD/JPY was one of the more stable pairs in the session, with option expiries containing the pair between 107.00 and 107.50. The lack of movement in US yields is also playing a part to keep the pair sideways for the time being.
Commodity currencies, in particular the AUD and NZD, are the laggards on the day with losses already starting from the Asian session before being stretched in European trading. Both the kiwi and aussie remain near the lows against the dollar as the underlying theme from the last two weeks of trading remains prevalent at the start of trading this week.
Coming up in the US session later, we'll be getting the Fed's preferred measure of inflation - the PCE deflator - so that will be one to look out for. The data will be due at 1230 GMT, and here's what the data means to the Fed.
