The forex trading headlines for Asia trading today
- China Q1 GDP recorded a big miss, coming in at +7.7% y/y (vs. +8.0% expected)
- Other Chinese data was also weak – China March Industrial Production +8.9% (vs. +10.1% expected)
- China Retail sales for March +12.4% y/y (vs. +12.6% expected)
- China March Fixed Asset investment excluding rural 20.9% (vs. 21.3% expected)
- Australia housing finance for February: +2.0% (vs. +1.5% expected)
- UK: April Rightmove House Prices +0.4% y/y (vs. +1.2% prior)
- UK: April Rightmove House Prices +2.1% m/m (vs. +1.7% prior)
- New Zealand data: March Services PMI 55.4 (vs. 55.5 prior)
- BOJ’s Kuroda spoke during the Tokyo morning, not really saying anything new – but his comments are here and here
- I don’t often report on newspaper articles in the headlines, but this one is worth being aware of – pointing to possible laying of groundwork for further wealth taxes in Europe
The Chinese GDP figures were a market focus today, with most currencies fairly quiet before their release.
USD/JPY, though, had an active morning, trading below 98.00 in the illiquid early New Zealand market before opening into Tokyo above 98.25. It traded as high as 98.71 as Kuroda’s unsurprising comments were being reported and then traded lower for the rest of the session, back below 98.00 as I write this wrap-up.
The Chinese data showed a big miss on expectations (see bullets, above). Interestingly, a leak of the number came out moments before the official release, the leak was accurate. AUD, EUR, GBP, NZD all traded lower with the news.
Gold and silver were already having a bad day, silver in particular being sold heavily throughout the session.
Oil, too, lost ground after the Chinese data.
Adding: Just a couple of points to note about the poor Chinese data. There was market talk that the numbers were actually understated (which is unusual given Chinese data is often said to be overstated) so as to give the new Chinese leadership a lower base to work from in coming releases and therefore being able to claim their new policies are working. Also, it is now only a matter of time before reports of new Chinese easings start to do the rounds.
